vS Data Reaper Report #300 – Vicious Syndicate (2024)

Welcome to the 300^th edition of the Data Reaper Report! This is the first report for Perils in Paradise.

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Number of Games

Class/Archetype Distribution

Class Frequency

Reminder: The graphs in the report are screenshots. You can see all the data, hover over graphs for more information, and select additional bracket filters, in the original tableau files on the website. Clicking on the screenshots in the report, or navigating through the website toolbar, gets you there.

Class Frequency Discussion

Unsurprisingly, Druid is one of the most popular classes in the format, but the class did not hit the ground running from day 1. It was initially Dragon Druid that looked like the most popular deck, quickly shedding most of the new cards for a build similar to the one it ran during the last month of Whizbang. Meanwhile, the OTK Concierge Druid archetype appeared to flop. A few days later, Concierge Druid hit a breakthrough in its development, incorporating the dragon package to its build. From that moment, Concierge has surged in play, especially at higher MMR’s. It’s currently in the process of taking over top legend ladder.

Rogue is a mix of the old and the new. Excavate Rogue has gone through minimal changes. The injection of late game lethality to the format has not been as dramatic as we expected, so Excavate Rogue’s game plan may have not diminished in its effectiveness. Elemental Rogue, centered on the power of Lamplighter, has emerged across ladder. Initially taking on a simplistic playstyle, it has since adopted a late game combo with Bounce Around that increased its burst potential quite substantially.

Warrior has dominated discourse along with Druid thanks to its popularity across ladder, peaking at Diamond ranks. Not too differently to Concierge Druid, Control Warrior has initially struggled in the first couple of days, finding itself getting ran over by aggression before adjusting its build to be more defensively sound. It has begun to lean harder into Chemical Spill/Zilliax to blow out the opponent early, while tuning its late game to a grindier path. Reno Warrior was refined relatively quickly, has fully embraced the Hydration Station approach, and looks more popular throughout most of ladder. Control Warrior is more common at top legend. Sandwich Warrior never took off.

Pain Warlock looked like the deck to beat in the first couple of days, but its play rate has relaxed since. Its build has stayed consistent since day 1 (our theorycrafting article list), with a little bit of variation. Insanity Warlock sees a little bit of play, mostly interested in Tidepool Pupil.

Shaman has had a very eventful launch of the expansion. A multitude of strategies have seen experimentation, with Pirate Shaman taking off as the most dominant one. Some variants have tried to break away from the archetype, such as one that cuts some of the pirate package, or one that leans harder into Evolve elements. For this report, they are merged into one archetype, due to a significant overlap in their card choices and how late some of these developments have occurred in our work. We’ll try to split decks in future reports once we’re able to. Elemental Shaman is also visible, though exhibits a low play rate and hasn’t excited players as much as its Rogue counterpart. Late-game-oriented Shaman strategies, such as Rainbow, Nature, Incindius, or Reno, have not picked up traction.

The pirate package’s success has carried over to its origin class too. Pirate Demon Hunter is more popular than its Shaman counterpart, though things tighten up at top legend between the two. There are experimentations with a Priest Pain package. The presence of Naga and Shopper Demon Hunter is barely noticeable.

Lamplighter has made a big impact on Mage, while its class sets have been discouraging. Elemental Mage was the last elemental deck to appear, but seems to be gaining more momentum than Shaman. Its cheap cost, card draw options, as well as board control tools, have possibly made it more appealing. It’s becoming increasingly popular on the climb to legend, but top legend players are mostly sticking with Rogue. Spell Mage is the other noticeable Mage deck, with a few changes to its old build. Big-Spell Mage never looked like finding favor.

Rainbow Death Knight has gone through multiple iterations. A defensive build with a burn package centered on Corpsicle is the one gaining more traction than others. The stubborn Plague Death Knight refuses to go away, while experimentations with other rune combinations is minimal.

Lynessa Paladin has quickly fallen off after its day 1 enthusiasm, with Paladin’s position in the format suddenly looking precarious. However, the old Showdown and Handbuff Paladin archetypes are beginning to creep up again, running minimal new additions.

Priest is seeing very little action. Reno Priest has not found a compelling build direction. Control Priest builds centered on Twilight Medium have quickly faded. Zarimi’s presence is small.

Hunter is almost completely gone. Secret Hunter is occasionally found, but the rest of the class is a non-recognizable mess.

vS Meta Score

vS Power Rankings Discussion

First report of the expansion. Remember that context is more important than metrics alone. We will highlight in the write up not just how decks were faring in the last week, but where they’re headed in the next week, based on the stage of their refinement and surrounding meta developments.

Druid

• Concierge Druid’s dramatic spike in performance following the addition of the dragon package was placing it on a path of complete domination of top legend ladder. However, the deck seems to have peaked in performance a couple of days ago, and it’s now going through a steady decline. While it is ‘soft countered’ by some aggressive decks, two harder counters could become a more serious issue for the deck’s standing. Handbuff Paladin is on an upward trajectory, boasting a near 75% win rate against Concierge Druid. The matchup is so oppressive that even the initial emergence of Paladin has already knocked Concierge Druid off a Tier 1 performance level. Zarimi Priest is another deck that, depending on how much traction it gets, could have a negative impact on Concierge Druid’s performance.
• Having said that, we don’t anticipate Concierge Druid to fall off harder. The deck is very strong against any opponent that gives it time. The best way to beat it is to kill it before it can execute its win condition. Paladin is uniquely strong against Druid because it develops so many stats in play that Druid struggles to finish off the Paladin with Chalice. A ~20% play rate and Tier 2 win rate at top legend is where it’s likely to settle at, as things stand. We anticipate it will get nerfed due to its high prevalence and influence, as well as its ability to occasionally execute OTK’s very early in the game.
• Dragon Druid is more tame in comparison. It’s a good deck amongst a bunch of good decks, but doesn’t stand out from the rest. Its play rate is likely to remain modest, perhaps even decline to some extent, considering Concierge is a more attractive option, especially for high level players. It has relatively little room for improvement through refinement. The impact of new cards has not given it a huge injection of power.
• Ramp Druid is decent in slow matchups, but gets destroyed so hard by aggressive decks that it’s non-viable. Perhaps, there’s more room to explore options, but we have yet to identify something that pulls it from Tier 4. Reno Druid behaves like a worse version of Dragon Druid.

Rogue

• Elemental Rogue initially looked quite scary, but its ascension to the top of the format was quickly brought to a stop by its poor matchup against Concierge Druid. The deck is also a bit vulnerable to several aggressive decks. Considering current meta developments, it’s far more likely to become a Tier 3 deck, than one that comes close to a Tier 1 performance level. Based on the last few days, it’s our firm expectation that Elemental Rogue will see a drastic decline. Elemental Rogue does not display an improvement in its overall matchup spread at higher levels of play either. As of today, it’s slightly below average.
• Excavate Rogue has managed to come out of the expansion reasonably well. It feels like a repeat of Whizbang, where it’s a very poor performer outside of top legend, but manages to stay around a 50% win rate at higher levels of play. However, future outlook for the deck isn’t great. We suspect it will struggle to keep its head above a 50% win rate considering it does not beat most of the refined decks in the format. It does not perform well against Warrior or Druid, while its scope for improvement is low.
• Gaslight Rogue does not look good, but it might be build-related. What we do know is that Freebird and Incindius don’t seem to work well. We’re going to wait and see what it ends up cooking.

Warrior

• Control Warrior’s scope for improvement is high, considering much of its aggregated data consists of greedy builds that anticipated a more combo-centric format at launch. However, it is extremely unlikely that Warrior becomes a Tier 1 contender in the current meta. Its refined form may perform well against most aggressive decks, but it still has no answers to extreme late game lethality. Elemental Rogue may decline, but Concierge Druid is going nowhere.
• Reno Warrior is in a similar boat, but without the scope for improvement. In contrast, this is a deck that was figured out quickly and stayed still. All signs point to a decline in its performance, especially at higher levels of play, where its freefall is beginning to take shape. It might completely disappear into the Tier 4 abyss at top legend. We’re feeling Plague Death Knight vibes.
• Sandwich Warrior has a win rate in the 20’s. It’s remarkably bad.

Warlock

• Pain Warlock looked like the best deck in the game on day 2 of the expansion. Since then, it’s been mostly downhill, with the deck looking very vulnerable to the injection of burst to the format. It’s still a decent deck, but one that gets somewhat carried by its strong matchups into Warrior and Druid. Against the rest of the field, it’s surprisingly weak. Should remain a viable choice to climb to legend with, but possibly unplayable (!) at top legend within days.
• Insanity Warlock is a decent deck, but its poor matchup against Concierge Druid holds it back to some extent. Where Concierge Druid is extremely popular, Insanity Warlock will struggle to get out of Tier 3.

Shaman

• Thrall is him. Pirate Shaman is the real deal and a serious contender to establish itself as one of the best decks in the game. Its matchup spread is very well rounded and it does not lose ground at higher levels of play, likely thanks to access to off-board damage in Horn of the Windlord that makes counterplay more difficult. Only the defensively robust Rainbow Death Knight presents a serious obstacle to Shaman’s success. An Evolve Shaman approach is similarly strong, but slightly inferior due to the sacrifices in its early game and absence of off-board damage.
• Lamplighter is truly carrying all elemental decks to competitive viability. However, we are concerned with these decks’ skill ceiling and staying power in a refined format. All indications are that Elemental Shaman will decline to some extent. Its inexistence at top legend is not strictly due to player preference. We think this deck will remain an option for the ladder climb, but one that is inferior to Pirate Shaman.
• As it stands, the only slower Shaman strategy with a chance of being competitive is Reno Shaman. Incindius, Nature, and Rainbow Shaman all look unplayable.

Demon Hunter

• Pirate DH looks good, but Pirate Shaman seems to do most things better. Pirate DH is very dominant into Dragon Druid, but doesn’t beat Concierge Druid. It also gets completely destroyed by Death Knight and should start having a more difficult time against Control Warrior. It’s clear that once its board is cleared, its ability to close out games is exposed as a weakness. Tourist Priest builds haven’t been able to solve this issue either. It should remain a strong deck but one that is a tier below Shaman.
• There’s a good chance Shopper DH is a very competitive option, but players are unlikely to provide us enough data to prove it, as interest in the deck is extremely low. Naga DH does have some interest at top legend, but the deck looks quite bad.

Mage

• Elemental Mage looks like the best elemental deck. It probably has the best win rate/dust ratio in the format. This should spark a surge in its popularity on the climb to legend this month, which we’re already seeing the beginning of. However, much like the other two elemental decks, its performance at higher levels of play is expected to decline and we’re not convinced it will have any relevant presence there.
• Spell Mage is generally weak across ladder. New cards aren’t enough to move the needle and its current popularity is a mirage.

Death Knight

• Rainbow Death Knight is proving to be a resilient, well-rounded deck with great potential in aggressive matchups. The one issue is late game lethality. While lethality is not as prominent as expected, Concierge Druid is proving to be a wall that Death Knight struggles to break through. The rest of its matchup spread is very balanced, which puts it around the 50% win rate mark.
• Plague Death Knight is quite terrible, which isn’t helped by the terrible builds it’s infested with. Still, don’t expect much even from its refined form. Where we do see some potential is a Frost-Aggro Death Knight deck. Not because of the freeze package, but because of Corpsicle and Horizon’s Edge. Those cards are carrying the class.

Paladin

• With zero hype after the failure of Lynessa, Paladin reminds everyone that it’s still got two old competitive decks to turn to. Turns out that these two decks are two of the best performers on ladder, including top legend. Showdown Paladin looks incredible due to how dominant it is against other board-centric decks, while Handbuff Paladin is the strongest counter in the game to Concierge Druid. Both decks have their fair of share of weaknesses, but they’re exploiting a format that has forgotten they exist. If you want an easy ladder climb without buying a single Perils in Paradise pack, look no further than these two. Both decks run one new legendary, which might not even be considered mandatory. That’s it.

Priest

• Zarimi Priest looked terrible at launch, but recently found a build that is proving to be very powerful. It’s currently on a steep, upward trajectory that is sending it to the top of the meta. A Tier 1 placement is nearly guaranteed considering its strong matchups against Concierge Druid and Handbuff Paladin. The only question is whether players will care about this deck again.
• Overheal Priest is another deck we would watch out for. Based on its low sample, it’s nearly as good as Zarimi Priest. We expect interest in this deck to rise over the coming week.

Hunter

• Hunter is functionally dead. Secret Hunter, the only Hunter deck that looks remotely competitive, is going to sink in a refined format. Nothing else in the class looks promising. Unless a dramatic discovery occurs, it will establish itself as the worst class in the game. By far.

Class Analysis & Decklists

Death Knight | Demon Hunter | Druid | Hunter | Mage | Paladin | Priest | Rogue | Shaman | Warlock | Warrior

Initially, Concierge Druid looked weak, but the addition of the dragon package has drastically lifted the archetype’s performance. It’s currently the most influential deck in the format.

28 cards appear to be solidified and have largely been agreed on. Running two copies of Concierge makes the deck more consistent, especially at executing early OTK’s.

This leaves two slots up for debate. The popular choice, Malfurion’s Gift, looks a bit underwhelming. Frost Lotus Seedling and Innervate represent good alternatives. We’ve opted for Seedling, as it’s the best performer out of the three, but Innervate is a close 2nd.

Dragon Druid ended up running very few new cards in its established build. New Heights works well with Trogg Gemtosser in the late game but isn’t a great card in the deck generally. Hydration Station is strong with Virus Zilliax, but more than one copy can create some dead hands. We’re very reliant on finding Zilliax before Station is useful, but we don’t have a hard tutor for Zilliax (Tortollan Traveler isn’t worth it).

In fact, some lists cut Hydration Station entirely while running Perfect/Twin Zilliax. Those builds are relatively close in power to the established build, so if Hydration/Virus Zilliax is addressed in a future patch, Dragon Druid is not expected to lose too much.

Reno Druid could be okay, but it’s worse than Dragon Druid. Ramp Druid is struggling against aggressive decks in a major way. We’re featuring its most promising direction that we had data on, but the deck doesn’t seem strong enough.

• Druid Class Radar
• Concierge Druid
  • Dragon Concierge Druid
• Dragon Druid
  • Hydration Dragon Druid
• Ramp Druid
  • Hydration Ramp Druid
• Reno Druid
  • Dragon Reno Druid

Turns out that Maestra is an optimal choice in Excavate Rogue! But that’s not thanks to Maestra herself. The card is horrendous, as bad as drawing Genn Greymane in our Genn deck. Whatever you think of its synergy with Tess Greymane, it’s not good in practice.

But Maestra allows us to run Party Fiend. Fiend is an incredible 1-drop at all stages of the game, one that fights for board in the early game better than any other 1-drop in the format, while synergizing incredibly well with our Ticking/Perfect Zilliax. It’s worth running a dud Maestra for the sake of including Fiend.

Another new card we’re liking in the deck is Griftah. Besides that, it’s business as usual.

Elemental Rogue is transitioning from a pure curve deck, into one that runs a more elaborate late game combo with Bounce Around that can deal an incredible amount of damage, enough to burst through an armor stacking Control Warrior with relative ease. This build is a hard Warrior counter, as Zilliax is completely useless against it. Sandbox Scoundrel can be helpful in the execution of the Sonya/Lamplighter combo.

As for elementals, Sweetened Snowflurry is strong. Tar Slime is very good. We’re less impressed with Eroded Sediment.

• Rogue Class Radar
• Excavate Rogue
  • Fiend Excavate Rogue
• Elemental Rogue
  • Bouncing Elemental Rogue

Control Warrior is still going through a refinement phase in which its greedy launch builds are being replaced by more defensively solid variants. The only thing that’s important for the late game is the Fizzle/Zola package, which gives the deck a pseudo-infinite source of Hydration Station and Inventor Boom.

Two copies of Chemical Spill are essential to beat aggressive decks and dodge opponent mind control effects, while two Town Criers are required to ensure a drawn Zilliax by turn 5. You don’t care about the second copies of these cards being useless, as you get all the value you need from Fizzle/Zola. Odyn is hard countered by Zilliax, so it’s a pointless inclusion through ETC.

Reno Warrior has basically become a Hydration Station deck too. Brann is one of the worst cards in the deck, as its main win condition in the current format is Chemical Spill into Hydration Station/Inventor Boom. Reno is fantastic against Zilliax, which is why the deck has an edge against Control Warrior. However, since our Zilliax win condition is less consistent, the deck’s ceiling doesn’t hit the same heights of a refined Control Warrior.

• Warrior Class Radar
• Control Warrior
  • Hydration Control Warrior
• Reno Warrior
  • Hydration Reno Warrior

Party Fiend is incredible in Pain Warlock, but other new cards are nowhere near as strong. Vona, Cursed Souvenir and Fearless Flamejuggler are three of the weakest cards in the deck. They’re good enough for inclusion and fit the deck, but we’re not attached to them if some adjustments are required in the future.

Tidepool Pupil is a strong card in Insanity Warlock. ‘Eat! The! Imp!’ is also serviceable. When refined, the deck is strong, but it struggles against Concierge Druid at higher levels of play.

• Warlock Class Radar
• Pain Warlock
  • Vona Pain Warlock
• Insanity Warlock
  • Pupil Insanity Warlock

Shaman has seen a lot of different experiments at launch week. Pirate Shaman looks like the clear best deck out of all available options. Some builds cut the pirates, but this direction weakens the early game, while the alternative cards don’t perform well.

Wave of Nostalgia is the worst card in the deck, but the best card against Warrior, since it can transform Zilliax and negate all Hydration Station/Inventor Boom follow ups. If you want to counter Warrior above all else, you can even run two copies of the card and cut a Jam Session, which would make the deck worse in the Pirate Shaman mirror.

With Wave of Nostalgia being so effective against Warrior, some players are trying to lean to it harder through an Evolve Shaman build. Evolve Shaman is strong. However, there is too much of a sacrifice in other matchups for it to be worthwhile compared to Pirate Shaman. It doesn’t even make Shaman better against Control Warrior since our ability to pressure early is lost. Running two copies of Wave in Pirate Shaman looks like a better anti-Warrior angle.

When it comes to Elemental Shaman, we would cut Incindius for an experimental Saloon Brewmaster. Data regarding the card in Elemental Mage suggests bouncing Lamplighter is a competitive angle not exclusive to Rogue.

Incindius decks generally look terrible. Where the card might become a viable win condition in the immediate term is Reno Shaman. It’s a low sample, but the archetype doesn’t look bad.

• Shaman Class Radar
• Pirate Shaman
  • Horn Pirate Shaman
• Elemental Shaman
  • Lamplighter Elemental Shaman
• Evolve Shaman
  • Nostalgia Evolve Shaman
• Reno Shaman
  • Incindius Reno Shaman

Pirate Demon Hunter is a good deck that has successfully carved out a place in the format. The featured build looks relatively clean. We’re not eager to force more pirates in, such as Southsea Captain. Kayn would probably not be good enough if Zilliax didn’t have such a dominant presence. We’re also not sure about ‘Through Fel and Flame’, Illidari Studies, and Parched Desperado. These would be the spots we would check first if we were looking to make future adjustments.

Some players are experimenting with the Tourist Pain package. We don’t think a formula has been found that moves the needle in favor of that direction just yet, but it’s possible that it’s found in the next couple of weeks. It’s close. It could be about the correct cuts. We’ve marked down suggestions here. Metamorphosis and Gorgonzormu are interesting options we would like to see more data on too.

Shopper Demon Huntermight not be dead. Although interest in the deck is very low, its small sample suggests it could be just as good as Pirate DH, if not better.

• Demon Hunter Class Radar
• Pirate Demon Hunter
  • Gliding Pirate Demon Hunter
• Shopper Demon Hunter
  • Fresh Shopper Demon Hunter

Elemental Mage is a very strong deck that’s incredibly cheap to craft.

From the most popular build, we suggest cutting Triplewick Trickster for a second copy of Tar Slime and Ticking/Pylon Zilliax. Trickster is the worst card in the deck and there’s no matchup where it becomes genuinely strong.

For some reason, everyone is running a single copy of Tar Slime in their elemental decks, but this 1-drop should not be disrespected. A turn 1 elemental increases our chances of winning. Brewmaster is good because Lamplighter is nuts. More reach helps us against Warrior, which is a tough matchup.

Seabreeze Chalice and Go with the Flow look like worthwhile inclusions in Spell Mage. Other cards, such as Tide Pools, we’re less impressed with. We still want to keep Stargazing/Lightshow in the deck.

• Mage Class Radar
• Elemental Mage
  • Brewmaster Elemental Mage
• Spell Mage
  • Chalice Spell Mage

Death Knight ended up with one of the more competitive sets in the expansion. Rainbow Death Knight’s biggest success comes from a defensive build that runs Corpsicle, Horizon’s Edge, Eliza Goreblade and Ghouls’ Night. This keeps the archetype’s strength in aggressive matchups, while possessing a lot of burn to kill slower decks in the later stages of the game. Dreadhound Handler is a star performer when it comes to early game board control.

But there are some things that can be improved on when looking at the most popular build. Based on preliminary results, Hematurge may be a superior discover card to Toysnatching Geist. Geist’s performance is very underwhelming.

A card that looks particularly bad now is the Headless Horseman. With Corpsicle available, the Horseman hero power becomes very redundant. There is no need to spend 6 mana to get an infinite source of damage anymore.

Helya and Marin are two other cards we’ve been looking to replace. We understand why they’re popular. They feel like a late game crutch, especially in the context of the Warrior matchup, where they perform at their best. They’re just very weak in many other matchups.

We do see some data on Quartzite Crusher that suggests it could be just as impactful against Warrior (9 damage while denying their Craftman’s Hammer swings is very good), but also game changing against Demon Hunter and Shaman. So, Crusher might be just as good against Warrior, while not being a total liability in other matchups.

If Crusher ends up performing well over a larger sample size, we’ll stick with it. If not, we can always go back to Helya and Marin.

Plague Death Knight is not very good, though a Buttons package does work reasonably well in it.

We’ve identified some promise in a Frost-Aggro Death Knight shell, with Corpsicle and Horizon’s Edge looking like the main drivers of its newfound strength. The new freeze package doesn’t seem to fit in.

• Death Knight Class Radar
• Rainbow Death Knight
  • Corpsicle Rainbow Death Knight
• Plague Death Knight
  • Excavate Plague Death Knight
• Frost-Aggro Death Knight
  • Corpsicle Frost Death Knight

The good news for Paladin: it’s the best performing class in the game. The bad news: it’s doing nothing new. Showdown Paladin is crazy good right now thanks to its strong matchups against the aggressive field, while Handbuff Paladin is the strongest counter to Concierge Druid.

One new card for each deck. Both are proving to be worthy additions.

• Paladin Class Radar
• Handbuff Paladin
  • Sandcastle Handbuff Paladin
• Showdown Paladin
  • Cheese Showdown Paladin

Zarimi Priest initially looked weak this expansion, but players have slowly figured out stronger directions for it that are pushing its performance to elite levels once again. The featured build runs Trusty Fishing Rod but doesn’t lean too hard into the Hunter set. Sasquawk is just about fine. We’re not too impressed with a Pain package. We’re less sure about Catch of the Day.

Overheal Priest shows some competitive promise based on its low play rate. Rest in Peace is a nice addition that can be relevant in different matchups. Reviving an Injured Hauler against aggressive decks can be backbreaking. Reviving an Aman’Thul is obviously strong against Warrior and Druid.

Reno Priest is bad. We haven’t found anything that improves the deck.

• Priest Class Radar
• Reno Priest
  • Sasquawk Reno Priest
• Zarimi Priest
  • Rod Zarimi Priest
• Overheal Priest
  • Rest Overheal Priest

Hunter seems hopeless. Nothing new is working in this class. The only deck that seems remotely playable with a borderline play rate is the old Secret Hunter deck. There is little reason to choose such a mediocre, uninspired option, so most players have forgotten the class exists.

• Hunter Class Radar
• Secret Hunter
  • Perilous Secret Hunter

Perils in Paradise has introduced several powerful synergies that have changed the landscape of the format. However, you might be able to count those synergies with one hand. Players who were expecting a Stormwind, might begin drawing comparisons to Rastakhan instead.

With the power level not jumping too high, Paladin’s old faithful are proving to be incredibly effective in the current meta. Ticking Zilliax is the strongest it’s ever been, and no deck abuses it like Showdown Paladin. Meanwhile, Handbuff Paladin is the hardest counter to Concierge Druid, the most influential deck in the format.

Balance changes are expected next week, which may tone down the few strong synergies that this expansion has introduced. This does leave us wondering if buffs will arrive to help Paradise’s failing sets, or should we brace ourselves for another round of WhizBadlands.

• Showdown Paladin
• Handbuff Paladin

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